Analisis Kelayakan Investasi Proyek EPC Pengembangan Coal Handling Facility (CHF) Rail Loop Serta Train Loading System (TLS) 6 Dan 7
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Abstract
Penelitian ini melakukan analisis risiko menggunakan dua pendekatan, yaitu kerangka deterministik berbasis skenario (optimistis, moderat, dan pesimistis) serta pendekatan simulasi Monte Carlo probabilistik untuk mengkuantifikasi distribusi nilai NPV dan IRR yang mungkin, dengan mensimulasikan variasi simultan faktor masukan. Arus kas dibangun berbasis manfaat incremental proyek (net incremental benefit) setelah pajak, bukan total revenue/OPEX korporat, dengan komponen CAPEX, OPEX, pajak, dan terminal value dinyatakan secara eksplisit. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa proyek ini layak secara teknis dan finansial pada kondisi dasar, sebagaimana ditunjukkan oleh nilai NPV yang positif, IRR lebih besar daripada WACC, dan BCR lebih dari 1. Simulasi Monte Carlo dijalankan sebanyak 10.000 iterasi dan menunjukkan bahwa proyek ini berisiko, tetapi tidak berlebihan, dengan probabilitas pemenuhan kriteria kelayakan berada pada kisaran 58%-64% serta sebaran nilai NPV, IRR, BCR, dan PP yang cukup lebar. Oleh karena itu, strategi manajemen risiko yang kuat dan operasional harus diterapkan untuk menjaga investasi tetap stabil dan memungkinkan proyek untuk berkembang secara berkelanjutan.
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