Pengaruh Harga Batu Bara, Nilai Tukar Riil, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Neraca Perdagangan Bilateral Indonesia – Korea Selatan
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Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh batu bara, nilai tukar riil efektif (Real Effective Exchange Rate/REER), dan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia terhadap Neraca Perdagangan Bilateral antara Indonesia dan Korea Selatan dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder runtun waktu (time series) tahunan dari periode 2000 hingga 2024. Metode analisis yang diterapkan adalah pendekatan kointegrasi Engel-Granger dan Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil pengujian kointegrasi menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang yang stabil antar variabel yang diteliti. Berdasarkan hasil estimasi jangka pendek (ECM), model memiliki daya penjelas yang sangat kuat sebesar 89,70% terhadap variasi neraca perdagangan bilateral. Secara parsial, hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek, batu bara berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap neraca perdagangan bilateral sejalan dengan Teori Keunggulan Komparatif. Sebaliknya, Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia terbukti berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap neraca perdagangan bilateral, yang mengindikasikan kuatnya absorpsi domestik terhadap barang-barang modal dan teknologi dari Korea Selatan seiring meningkatnya pendapatan nasional. Sementara itu, nilai tukar riil efektif ditemukan berpengaruh positif namun tidak signifikan dalam jangka pendek akibat adanya kekakuan kontrak dagang (rigidity of contracts) dan fenomena efek Kurva-J. Koefisien Error Correction Term bernilai negatif dan signifikan sebesar -1,576292, yang menegaskan validitas model serta menunjukkan mekanisme penyesuaian yang dinamis dari fluktuasi jangka pendek menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang.
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